Esports moves quickly, and bookmakers don’t always keep pace. A roster change, a balance patch, or an upset victory can instantly skew their odds. Platforms like 20Bet give you access to these markets, making it easier to spot when the odds are off. In this guide, we’ll show you how to spot opportunities. We’ll explain why understanding odds matters more than predictions. Finally, we’ll discuss what you need to make smarter bets.
What is a Value Bet in Esports?
A value bet arises when the odds underestimate a team’s actual chances of winning. In other words, you’re offered higher odds than the true probability suggests. To find a value bet, check the bookmaker’s implied probability. Then, compare it to your research.
For example, what if in a Dota 2 tournament match, a betting site has Team Radiant on odds implying a 55% win chance? Your research shows their real win probability is around 70%. The difference in their chances to win shows a possible value bet. You can use this to your advantage.
How to Find Value Bets in Esports
To consistently uncover value in esports, you need a structured, methodical approach.
Step 1 – Understand Implied Probability
You need to understand implied probability before you can find value bets. Bookmakers essentially translate their odds into implied probability. For instance, if you see decimal odds of 2.00 on a team, that reflects a 50% chance of them winning (1 ÷ 2.00). In a similar vein, American odds of +100 state a 50% chance.
You need to understand implied probability to measure the “value” of an esports wager. You need to be fluent in it because it’s the bookmaker’s language.
Step 2 – Do Your Research
The backbone of effective value betting is solid, detailed research and analysis. This is much more than looking at recent scores. Check out the team’s performance. Check their recent games. Note any roster changes that could impact them. Also, see how they’ve performed against certain opponents.
Examine each team’s skill on each map in the competitive pool for a Counter-Strike 2 match. Study team win rates, individual player stats, and map-specific histories. Also consider external factors like fatigue from travel, which can hurt a LoL roster’s performance.
Check out patch changes. A recent update can change the game meta a lot. It might favor certain champions or tactics. This can impact a team’s performance. The better your research, the more accurate your estimates. Soon, you’ll master spotting value bets.
Step 3 – Shop for Odds Across Esports Betting Sites
Esports betting sites often post different odds for the same matchup. Spotting and using these gaps can directly boost your profit potential. Before you place a bet, be sure to check the odds from many bookmakers. Small changes can affect your profits. Even a fraction of a point on decimal odds can add up over many bets.
In VALORANT, even a small shift—like half a point in the odds—can make a noticeable difference over time. But getting the best price is crucial for long-term betting success. Consider it a form of bargain hunting: why spend more when a different seller is selling the same item for less? Paying attention to these fine details ensures you squeeze value out of every betting opportunity.
Common Mistakes When Searching for Value
Chasing recent results
Teams that pulled off a big win often get overvalued by casual bettors. One series doesn’t define consistency. Remember, the market corrects itself fast, and those inflated odds don’t usually stay available for long.
Ignoring map pool weaknesses.
Trusting movement without reason.
Betting without a model or baseline.
Practical Tips for Beginners
For beginners, it’s key to know that no strategy ensures success in esports betting. Still, being well-prepared can help improve your odds. Yet, these tips can better your chances:
- Focus on one title at first—master a single game before branching out. Betting on VALORANT or CS2? You need to know the game well. Without that, you’re guessing.
- Keep a betting journal to log every wager you place. Include odds, reasoning, and outcome. Over time, that record will highlight where your predictions are sharp and where you tend to go wrong.
- Skip major events when starting—big matches attract casual bettors and distort the odds. Smaller competitions often offer clearer value because fewer people are pricing them accurately.
- Control your bankroll: Use flat stakes or units tied to your total budget. Risking more on a “sure thing” usually ends badly. Keep your betting disciplined and responsible.
As you get better at value betting in esports, stay disciplined. These strategies will help you uncover when a team or player’s true chances aren’t fully reflected by the line. It’s not simply theory; it’s timing, pattern-reading, and using what others miss. That’s where the real value bets emerge—giving you opportunities to profit.